The current IPO pace has been brought about by the sentiment previously mentioned, as well as the SPAC boom, as these blank-check acquisition companies have lower regulatory hurdles and greater flexibility to bring more speculative companies into the public markets. It shows how the conditions stack up today for US equities in relation to past times. The table below shows the current readings of each of these gauges for the US equity market as a whole, and the chart below it shows the aggregate reading derived by combining these gauges into one reading for the stock market going back to 1910. These gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. In the stock market we do it for each stock that we are looking at. Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?Įach of these six influences is measured using a number of stats that are combined into gauges.Are purchases being financed by high leverage?.How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?.Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?.How high are prices relative to traditional measures?.What I mean by a bubble is an unsustainably high price, and how I measure it is with the following six measures. I want to show you how it works and what it is now showing for US stocks. We now use it to look at most markets we are in. The last time these indices were at comparable levels was in December 2015.I’ve seen a lot of bubbles in my time and I have studied even more in history, so I know what I mean by a bubble and I systemized it into a “bubble indicator” that I monitor to help give me perspective on each market. The June values are much higher than year-earlier levels but are not at all-time highs. The nitrogen index increased from 66.7 in January to 85.7 in June. The mixed fertilizers’ index value was 65.1 in January, reaching 78.4 in June. From 2013 through 2017, fertilizer prices generally decreased, reaching and maintaining low values through 2020.īoth indices increased in 2021. For example, the nitrogen index increased and then declined in late 2011, mid-2012, and mid-2013. Then, indices rose again and spiked several times. Later in the year, the 2008 financial crisis disrupted all markets, leading to falling commodity prices, including fertilizers.įrom 2008 highs, fertilizer indices fell and reached lows in late 2009 70.1 index value for mixed fertilizers in November and 64.0 value for nitrogen in September. Rising demand in emerging markets and long-term supply concerns contributed to the record-setting commodity prices. Both fertilizer indices hit all-time highs in 2008: mixed fertilizer was 145.9 in October and nitrogen was 135.6 in September (see Figure 1). Many commodities prices, including fertilizers, increased dramatically from mid-2006 until late 2008. From 1990 to 2005, however, several periods of higher prices followed by declines do exist, with more than 10% decline happening in early-2001 and again in 2006 (see Figure 1). Both indices began in 1990 with values in the high 20s and then exhibited upward trends through the mid-2000s. Since the beginning of reporting in 1990, indices exhibited variability, as one would expect with commodities. Nitrogen fertilizers primarily are used to supply nitrogen, including anhydrous ammonia, 28% and 32% nitrogen solutions, and urea. The mixed fertilizer index is for fertilizers including nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash. fertilizers – mixed, hereafter referred to as mixed fertilizers.Department of Agriculture (USDA) regularly calculates index values of prices paid for fertilizers. High fertilizer prices lead to projections of near record-high fertilizer costs in 2022 for both corn and soybeans, though short of the all-time high levels set in 2008. Illinois Farmland Leasing & Rental Formsįertilizer prices have increased dramatically over the past year, with prices on major fertilizer products in Illinois increasing by over 50%.Illinois Crop Budgets & Historic Returns.Farmland LEasing Facts Sheets & Pricing Information.Illinois Soil Productivity & Yield Utilities.Briomass Crop Budget Tool – Miscanthus & Switchgrass.Appraisal of Current Financial Position.Balance Sheet & Historical Financial Statements.Post Application Coverage Endorsement Tool (Sheet).precision conservation management (PCM).
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